commentary by Ian and MichaelH of the meetup group

Alright, folks, I came in late today, but here’s a quick rundown of what went down during the February 15 meetup. Let’s get into it.

1 Bohol opportunity?

First off, there was some talk about investment opportunities in Bohol. Apparently, there are cases where Chinese investors might have pumped money into projects and then just left them hanging. The question now is: are these projects abandoned, or are they just sitting empty? Are they vacation homes? Have they defaulted? Nobody really knows yet. There’s going to be some digging into this to figure out what’s really going on.

( Primary Homes, is a Cebu based developer, who already completed one of the projects there, Royal Ocean Crest, with two condos and over one hundred houses. The project looks complete, and they have even launched a second phase. But we we visited in Oct,, it looked like move-ins were way below 10%. Quality of the 100+ completed houses did not look high. Is there a dispute? What would happen to prices, if the project had many forced sellers? Perhaps because there are mainland chinese owners, they might have visa issues.)

2 Building Wealth thru Cyclical Investing

Next, there was a discussion on how people build wealth. The gist? Timing is everything. Some folks worked hard, saved up, and waited for the right moment—like during a market crash or a black swan event—to make their move. The advice here is to preserve your cash and stay ready. When the opportunity comes, if you’ve secured your money in a safe jurisdiction unaffected by the downturn, that’s when you strike.

( At or near the market low, people are nervous. Some are panic sellers, and most are afraid to buy. Will we see that phase for Condos, and especially smaller ones, in Makati CBD in 2025? There are some signs… )

3 Affordable housing?

Now, about government housing programs —they’re not gaining much traction. Why? Foreign investors feel like they need to shell out a lot of money upfront before seeing any returns. Plus, there’s this narrative about corruption (and unexpected policy changes) in regulatory bodies that doesn’t inspire confidence. But hey, the reality is what it is. You’ve got to work with what’s there, find the efficiencies, and figure out how to navigate the system profitably.

( Regulatory and Tax issue are one of the key issues that needs evaluation, starting at the very beginning. )

We also touched on the 4PH projects. Over the past three years, there have been changes worth noting—banks seem more willing to participate now. But one big issue remains: a lack of experienced contractors for large-scale projects. Many went bankrupt during the last cycle and are still recovering. So, we’ll need to watch for new players who can step up and take on these challenges.

( There are probably some great opportunities to either buy at a discount, or finance at healthy rates, stalled projects. And banks involved may assist new equity partners. But what would the collateral be? How can one accurately assess the risk on a part completed project? )

4 BIR Clampdown

Another hot topic was the BIR clampdown on rental real estate—particularly in Taguig-BGC, Makati and other CBDs. They’re cracking down on unregistered rentals, which makes sense—you rent it out, you pay taxes. But let’s hope they streamline the process and don’t overburden small-time landlords who are just trying to cover costs.

( The warning signs are there now, but it seems that Taguig has been the most aggressive in pursuing landlords, who may have rented properties. )

5 The Future

Lastly, we talked about the broader investment landscape in the Philippines. For foreigners especially, access to opportunities can be tricky due to bottlenecks with banks or private financiers who might not always have your best interests at heart. Compared to more developed markets with better liquidity and options, it’s a tougher game here. That said, as more capital enters the market and competition grows, we might see lower interest rates and better deals down the line.

For now, though, liquidity is still tight—thanks in part to the aftershocks of 2020—and interest rates remain high. It could take several more years before things pick up again.

( Personally, I think it will be a “Rolling recovery”. With some areas, such as Makati, or BGC, recovering many months, or even years before possible laggard areas like Manila Bay. Colliers and LeeChiu would seem to agree with this assessment. )

That wraps up today’s recap! Let’s keep monitoring these developments and see where things go from here. Catch you at the next meetup!

Note: Original comments from Ian M. (responses from Michael H)